Churn is hard to predict


Predicting churn doesn't work (well)

  • Predicting churn should be targeted with the actionable insight, not just binary results (churn or not)
  • Churn is hard to predict with high accuracy
    • customers may took long time to cancel
    • Utility or enjoyment is a fundamentally subjective eperience
  • Churn is normally rare in comparisons with retention, false positive predictions are common.